Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S.

We study unconventional policy shocks and information shocks associated with central bank announcements in the U.S. While unconventional policy shocks capture the direct influence of announced monetary policy actions, information shocks are associated with central bank information conveyed with the announcement. To disentangle these two types of shocks, we impose sign restrictions on high frequency changes in interest rates and stock prices around announcements. We find that information shocks lead to persistent declines in the 10-year government bond yield, whereas the actual unconventional policy shock induces only small interest rate responses. We also find that expansionary output effects of unconventional monetary policy are to some extent counteracted by the information shock.     

ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators with the aim to provide early signals for turning points in the euro area headline and core inflation cycles. The headline (core) ALICE leads the reference cycle by three (four) months and the lead times extend to five (nine) months based on longer-leading series. Both ALICE indicators signalled turning points in the inflation cycles ex post and also performed well in a simulated real-time exercise. Moreover, in particular the headline ALICE also appeared to be useful for quantitative forecasting of the direction and level of inflation.     

Operational efficiency analysis of Beijing multi-airport terminal airspace

Multi-airport systems are growing in number and size globally, despite being afflicted by known inefficiencies due to the interferences between the flows of neighbouring airports. A macroscopic empirical approach is proposed in this paper to estimate the capacity penalties and demonstrated by a numerical case study for Beijing, which is projected to become one of the busiest metroplexes in Asia. The Pareto envelopes of the theoretical and observed peak hour capacities are statistically analysed to quantify the penalties in a comparable metroplex and are subsequently modulated by a sigmoid correlation function. The analysis predicts the practical capacity of Daxing, the penalty incurred by the pre-existing Capital airport and by the total multi-airport system. Various findings are drawn and discussed, highlighting the needs for further research.     

The role of financial journalists in the expectations channel of the monetary transmission mechanism

Monetary policy relies on managing the inflation expectations of the public in order to influence prices (inflation). Relying on the South African experience, we argue that most of the general public are exposed to the communication of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) only via the media. This state of affairs is fairly typical around the globe. We explored the role and biases of the journalists in transmitting the SARB’s communications to the rationally inattentive general public. Our aim was to obtain insights about the factors that influence media articles that deal with monetary policy issues. Using interviews and qualitative content analysis, we explored the extent of the journalists’ knowledge about inflation and monetary policy, their views concerning the credibility of the SARB, the sources of information they use, and the constraints and incentives they face in writing their articles.     

别让IT运维成为中小企业迈向国际化的“包袱”

随着中国改革开放的不断深入,中国加入WTO,国内中小企业如雨后春笋般的发展起来,甚至已经将公司开到了国外,为新中国的经济腾飞做出了不可磨灭的贡献,期间IT系统在规范管理、提升工作效率方面起到了应用的作用。但随着企业规模的不断扩大,分公司越来越多,地域间隔越来越远,IT系统运维正变得空前困难。鉴于此,本文将着重介绍如何利用新技术降低IT运维成本,提升运维效率。     

“中国梦”视阈中的当代中国社会主义核心价值观建构

党的十八大提出"三个倡导",培育和践行社会主义核心价值观。习近平总书记关于中国梦的论述,指明了中国特色社会主义的前进方向和奋斗目标,描绘了国家富强、民族振兴、人民幸福的美好蓝图。社会主义核心价值观从国家、社会、个体三个维度对实现"中国梦"提出了细化的内在要求和强大的精神动力,是实现中华民族伟大复兴中国梦的思想保证。     

古代西南地区民族与外来人口的融合

我国是一个多民族国家,民族问题历来是我们生活中的大事.由于民族问题是一个复杂的问题,有其产生、发展和消亡的过程,因此,探讨民族融合问题便成为民族溯源的有机组成部分.我国历史上西南地区民族融合和具体实现的方式主要有:民族迁徙,相互聚集;经济文化的友好交流;某些少数民族统治者的改革;民族之间的战争等.     

Disciplina de mercado en el sistema bancario centroamericano

This article empirically tests the market discipline hypothesis in the Central American banking system. Whether the riskier banks (with the worst bank fundamentals) pay higher interest rates and attract fewer amounts of deposits. We use dynamic panel data models and the generalized method of moments (SYS GMM) estimator, and a sample of 30 banks from six Central American countries over the years 2008-2012. In contrast to most of the previous empirical literature, particularly in developed countries, in Central America we did not find evidence for market discipline. The results are robust to different indicators of the bank fundamentals, to the effect of the internal demand for funding by banks, and to other econometric methods. These findings indicate weakness in the disclosure policy of banking information.     

基于步行连续性的城市健身步道空间 挖掘与选线设计研究——以青岛主城四区 为例

高连续性路径空间是步行健身行为高效性与安全性 的重要保障。当前城市建设中,能够被大众高效利用的健身 步道呈碎片化分布,全民健身导向下亟须在现有城市空间中 进行高连续性的步道网络化构建。以青岛主城四区为例,基 于连续性目标,通过对OSM数据的爬取与处理,形成适于连 续度赋值的城市基础路网数据。挖掘具有高连续性特征的铁 路沿线、高架走廊、滨河沿海、环景观外边界路径等潜力空 间融入步道选线设计,提出与地铁站点相结合的高连续性选 线技术路线。基于ArcGIS网络分析计算成本最小路径,兼顾 路口等级及公园、绿地、湖泊等自然资源的紧邻性进行步道 选线规划,并从连续度水平、便捷可达性、环境舒适性、空 间多元性几方面对选线结果进行探讨。该选线途径有助于提 升城市步行运动环境的健身利用效能,为实现高连续性的健 身步道网络构建提供设计支持。